Thunderbolts*is kicking off the summer movie season, but it will need to make an impressive amount of money worldwide to be a success forMarvel. The MCU hasn’t had the consistency it used to have during the Infinity Saga. It has had several hits sinceAvengers: Endgame, includingSpider-Man: No Way HomeandGuardians of the Galaxy Vol.3. However, it also had several flops, such asAnt-Man and the Wasp: QuantumaniaandThe Marvels.Deadpool & Wolverinewas a massive hit, grossing over $1 billion, butCaptain America: Brave New Worlddidn’t reach the same heights.
Thunderboltshas high expectations, especially since Marvel only has this andFantastic FourbeforeAvengers: Doomsday. The studio needs to drum up excitement before the next massive crossover event. Fortunately,Thunderboltshas an excellent cast of characters, many returning from previous movies and shows, while there are also some new faces, like Lewis Pullman’s Sentry. The main cast of characters could be enough to draw audiences to theaters, but Marvel will need more for the film to break even.
Marvel’s Thunderbolts* Budget Could Be Between $150-$200 Million
Thunderbolts* Has A Large But Standard Budget For An MCU Movie
According toForbes, no outlet has officially reported the budget forThunderbolts*, butit wouldn’t be surprising if the film had a production budget “in the $150 million to $200 million range.“The cost of blockbuster films has risen in recent years, making it harder for them to break even. Marvel has been producing many projects at this cost, perhaps even higher. IfThunderbolts*is within that range, it would be within the average production cost for an MCU film before marketing and advertising, perhaps even on the lower side of other films.
For example,Brave New Worldcost around $180 million. Still expensive, but more modest in comparison toThe Marvels, which was made for $270 million.Ant-Man 3also cost a pretty penny, with a budget that reportedly came in at $388.4 million. Marvel’s lofty budgets have become costly for the studio, especially for many of its streaming programs, likeSecret InvasionandShe-Hulk: Attorney At Law, which will never make their money back since there are no box office returns.
How Much Thunderbolts* Needs For Box Office Success
Thunderbolts* Doesn’t Need To Break Records To Be A Success
Movies typically need to double their production budget to start making a profit. If the estimated budget is accurate, this meansThunderbolts*would need to make between $300-$400 million to be successful. However, that number likely needs to be increased, as there are marketing and advertising numbers that aren’t always reported with the overall budget. For example,Brave New Worldmade $414 million worldwide, making it a moderate success based on its reported budget.
IfThunderbolts*has a budget within the same range as the previous Marvel film, then it could be considered a success if it makes around the same amount. However, Marvel is obviously hoping it makes more than that so the studio can get a better return on investment. The film’s box office would mainly be a failure if it doesn’t make back its budget at all.The Marvelswas a massive box office flopfor Marvel, only making $206 million worldwide, falling well below its budget.
How Much Thunderbolts* Is Projected To Make At The Box Office
Thunderbolts* Could Perform Well Depending On Reviews And Audience Reactions
Current box office projections aren’t promising forThunderbolts*. According toThe Hollywood Reporter, the Marvel film is projected for a domestic opening between “the $63 million to $77 million range, with a target number of $70 million.” This opening would put it in the lower tier for Marvel releases, falling underBrave New World’s opening of $88 millionbut aboveThe Marvels' $47 million. The bigger question is what the following weeks will look like for the film, and could its projections be improved by positive reactions from audiences and critics?
Brave New WorldandThe Marvelshad mixed reactions, leading to massive drops in their second weekends. However,Thunderboltsis receiving good reviews,currently holding a 91% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes based on 79 reviews. If word-of-mouth from audiences is strong, it could lead to great legs at the box office, potentially increasing from its initial projections. For example,Sinnersonly suffered a 6% drop in its second weekend, thanks to excellent reviews from audiences and critics. If reviews forThunderboltshold strong, then the film could get a boost to its box office throughout its theatrical run.
