FollowingSinners' above-projection opening weekend box office, a new report about the movie’s breakeven point complicates the studio’s narrative on how much it needs to gross to become profitable. With original, director-driven movies that hit in theaters becoming increasingly rare, hopes are high for it to perform and encourage studios to take more chances, though worries about its potential to turn a profit have dogged it for weeks. AfterSinnersopened to $48 million domestically, the highest for an original movie this decade, some negative-leaning media coverage sparked intense debate over how the Black-led film was being discussed.
Interest in its box office has only grown, but a new report suggests assessing its success will be complicated. PerPuck’s Matt Belloni, Warner Bros. projects a breakeven point of $170 million, accounting for ancillary revenue to come from home entertainment sales, which is an unusual practice. But, with the standard breakeven point around2.5x the production budget, the movie would need to make $225 million before it can start to turn a profit. Further complicating matters,Puck’s reporting suggests the movie’s real budget is closer to $105 million, which would raise the traditional breakeven point to $260 million.
Belloni cites two insiders as having claimeddirector Ryan Coogler chose to defer some of his fixed fee to cover overages during shooting, which would lower the required box office somewhat. But even so, the studio’s lower breakeven value would suggest a less-than-typical marketing spend, despite WB’s insistence it was “commensurate with a film of this budget and with the kind of star power behindSinners.” As is often typical of the infamous Hollywood accounting, unlessSinnersblows past the highest of these numbers, its true level of success may be difficult to perceive from the outside.
What This Means For Sinners' Chances Of Success
The Movie Will Need To Perform Well, But Early Signs Are Promising
There are many ways a movie can make money these days outside of theatrical performance, but hopes will be high forSinners' box office performance. The movie has posted the highest opening for an original movie since2019’s excellent Jordan Peele horrorUs, and this could see it well on its way to a strong performance. Coogler is one of the most talented and interesting directors working in Hollywood right now, and the appeal ofseeing him create original movies is something that is resonating with audiences.
Sinnersis a unique, engaging, and interesting take on the vampire genre, and a well-needed dose of originality in a market crowded with comic book and video game adaptations, and relentless remakes.
If the budget is larger than initially expected, the movie might find it difficult to make much of a profit, but, as one of the most exciting and well-received original horrors in recent times,Sinnerscould have some strong box-office legs. The success of the movie will be important as it would show there is still an appetite for original IPs that are not based on other mediums, and might encourage studios to make bolder creative choices.Sinnersis already regarded as one ofCoogler’s best movies, and could be a seminal release for the future of original filmmaking.
This Unique Take On The Vampire Movie Is A Breath Of Fresh Air
Image via Warner Bros.
Sinnersis a unique, engaging, and interesting take on the vampire genre, and a well-needed dose of originality in a market crowded with comic book and video game adaptations, and relentless remakes. It sees another stellar collaboration between Coogler and Michael B. Jordan, and it could wind up becoming one of thebest vampire movies ever. HowSinnerswill perform overall, and how much money it will make for Warner Bros., remains to be seen, but hopes will be high that this can be the original hit the industry has been crying out for.
Sinners
Cast
Sinners follows twin brothers who, in an attempt to escape their past hardships, return to their hometown seeking a fresh start. However, they find themselves confronted by a formidable and sinister presence awaiting their comeback. The 2025 film explores themes of redemption and malevolence.
