We’re still basically a year away from the Oscars 2026, butSinnersmight be the year’s first major contender. It wasn’t that long ago thatAnorawon Best Picture and brought an end to the Oscars 2025 and the awards season for last year’s films. Yet, attention is already turning to what movies will be represented at the 98th Academy Awards. That’s really picked up recently with early year awards festivals likeCannes announcing its lineupsand more films getting release dates in the fall, which is a more traditional launching spot for Oscar contenders.
Sinners' release on April 18 has now put it in the mix for Oscar conversations. Although it was not one ofmy way-too-early Oscars 2026 Best Picture predicted nominees, a new film from Ryan Coogler always had some chance to get awards recognition. With glowing reviews and box office receipts that continue to soar,Sinnershas emerged as one of 2025’s biggest and best films. That has led to an increase in discussions about its Oscar chances, even if there are still over 10 months left before the 98th Academy Awards are held on June 15, 2025.
Sinners Has The Support Necessary To Be An Oscar Contender
Hollywood & Audiences Are Embracing The Movie
It is fairly easy to build the case forSinnersto be an Oscar contender next year. Typically, a movie needs some combination of critical praise, backing from a studio willing to do a major campaign, support from creatives in Hollywood, and general success.Sinnerschecks all of those boxes.
The movie is already one of the best-reviewed releases of the year, as indicated by its 98% score on Rotten Tomatoes. The critics support does not have any bearing on Oscar voting, but it could help its case.Sinnersis now in a strong position early on to secure nominations and wins from various critics' groups. That type of recognition can create momentum ahead of the Oscars. There are surely going to be several other great films released the rest of the year, but I’d be pretty surprised if critics completely ignoreSinnersduring awards season.
There’s also the benefit ofSinnersbeing a Warner Bros. release. The original movie is one of two likely Oscar contenders confirmed to come out this year from the studio. There is a world where WB has to choose betweenSinnersand the other, Paul Thomas Anderson’sOne Battle After Another, when it comes to determining which film needs more support.Warner Bros. has a great track record of getting at least one of their films a Best Picture nominationeach year.Sinnerscould be that film.
The support thatSinnersalready has in Hollywood should help its case too.Ryan Coogler is a massively popular filmmaker who already has one major Oscars contender under his beltwithBlack Panther. His ability to deliver such a bold and meaningful blockbuster genre film that’s also a wholly original story is something that his peers in the industry will likely want to celebrate. That’s sure to helpSinnerswhen it comes time for Oscar voting.
Lastly,Sinners' box office success should also bolster its case. The film could be one of the more popular picks on ballots due to its widespread awareness.Sinnersbeing a major Oscars contender would be a way for the ceremony to include at least one movie that is connecting with the general public. And while this isn’t the reason why the movie should get Oscar nominations, having Coogler, Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, and others at the 98th Academy Awards ifSinnersis a multi-nominated film, that could have a positive impact on viewership.
Will Sinners' Early Release Date & Genre Hurt Its Oscar Chances?
Horror Movies Aren’t Typically Oscar Contenders
There are a lot of reasons to believe thatSinnerscould be an eventual Oscar-nominated film in multiple categories, but there are a few factors potentially working against it. The first is its release date. There is a long-standing tradition of studios waiting until later in the year to release films they want to be featured at the Oscars, as it gives them the best chance to feel relevant right as awards season picks up. Just look at last year’s lineup;Dune: Part Twowas the only movie released theatrically before the summer that got a Best Picture nomination.
The good news forSinners, though, is thatthe Oscars do have a trend of having at least one earlier-in-the-year release break through in Best Picture.2024 hadOppenheimer,Barbie, andPast Livesin Best Picture despite all three coming out before the previous July. 2023 hadEverything Everywhere All At Oncein March andTop Gun: Maverickin May. 2022 hadDunefrom March. 2020 hadOnce Upon A Time In Hollywoodfrom July. Plus, 2019 hadBlack Pantherafter its February release. There’s currently no other early-year release threateningSinnersto be the 2026 example.
The other potential holdup to consider isSinners' status as a horror movie. While its not a traditional horror film with how it blends in music,the Oscars are traditionally more against recognizing horror films than they are accepting of them.The Substance’s Best Picture nomination this past ceremony was only the seventh time a horror film was recognized in the category. However, that nomination also proved the Academy is willing to nominate horror when it reaches a certain level of popularity and praise, whichSinnersalso has.
Sinners' horror movie categorization should not be too much of a hindrance for the Oscars, in my opinion. Not only didThe Substanceget nominated last year in multiple categories, but so didNosferatu. These are great examples of horror movies being done in a way where other aspects of the filmmaking can be praised and move discussions beyond the scariest moments, best jump scares, or goriest deaths. Thedeeper meaning ofSinnersthat Coogler is exploring can help it resonate with voters.
What Categories Sinners Could Receive Oscar Nominations In
Several Nominations Are Likely
I’ll be pretty surprised ifSinnersdoesn’t wind up with at least a few Oscar nominations next year at this point. The movie’s technical aspects should be strongly considered by various Academy branches. Ludwig Göransson’s score is tremendous, as are some of the original songs he wrote for theSinnerssoundtrack. The overall sound design is excellently done too.Ruth E. Carter’s costume design and Hannah Bechler’s production design elevate the realism of the worldthe movie exists in too. Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s cinematography and Michael P. Shawver’s editing could also gain recognition if a Best Picture case mounts.
The bigger questions arise when it comes to the cast and Coogler. There’s a case to be made for Coogler earning nominations in Best Original Screenplay and Best Director. Arguments for Michael B. Jordan getting in Best Actor could be convincing with his dual role performance, while former Oscar-nominee Hailee Steinfeld is also great. Those nominations feel a bit less likely to happen to me. But, Delroy Lindo could factor into Best Supporting Actor.I could seeSinnersbeing one of the first nominees in the new Best Casting categoryto highlight the whole ensemble and casting director Francine Maisler.
I won’t be completely shocked ifSinnersgets closer to 10 Oscar nominations
With so many conceivable nominations,Sinners' chances for a Best Picture nomination feel strong. I could ultimatelyenvision a world where it receives similar Oscar nominations toBlack Panther. That would mean Best Picture, Costume Design, Production Design, Sound, Original Score, and Original Song. Add in the potential Best Casting nomination, andSinnersgetting seven Oscar nominations feels like a solid outcome. That said, I won’t be completely shocked ifSinnersgets closer to 10 Oscar nominations with Coogler’s directing and writing, as well as other technical achievements.
Will Sinners Win Best Picture At The 2026 Oscars?
It Would Be A Historic Win
The landscape for 2026’s Best Picture Oscar is still going to evolve a lot in the next 10 months, soit’s a bit too early to confidently say thatSinnerswill or will not win the top prize. One could argue it could be this year’s version ofEverything Everywhere All At Once, an inventive, fun, original genre movie with deeper themes audiences can connect to. It could also be just likeBlack Panther, a major genre blockbuster worth celebrating that loses to a smaller, more atypical Oscar film.
IfSinnersdoes win Best Picture, it would be a historic moment. This would be only the third film ever directed by a Black director to win Best Picture, with12 Years a SlaveandMoonlightbeing the others. It would also be one of the rare films with a Black ensemble cast to win.Sinnerswould also become just the second horror movie to win, joiningThe Silence of the Lambs. Some of these historical components could become additional reasons for voters to helpSinnerswin Best Picture, but they also provide context for how rare it would be.
